ravan: by Ravan (Default)
( Jan. 1st, 2013 03:00 pm)
For several years I've been doing the predictions thing every January, and a retrospective on the year previous.

I probably won't do a full one this year. Too much fuckery going on, the economy sort of gets better, but not for a lot of folks in red states, rights in general take a hit from ALEC driven GOP legislators, again mostly in red states, but any bill coming out of the US House is also infected with degenerate neo-Republicanism.

I want real conservatives back, not these jackass, Koch fellating, teabagging, randroid narcissistic dominionists that rule the current GOP. They started cropping up during Reagan, and PNAC, and every year have doubled down on the nuttiness. I want conservatives who care more about their country than sucking up to Grover Norquist, Rush Limbaugh, the Koch brothers, the Religious Right, et al. Is that too much to ask?
I can't say that I didn't see this shit coming. The brownshirts just haven't picked their uniform yet.

From my predictions on terror:
The biggest terrorist acts in the US will be from home-grown, non-Muslim, right-wing radicals, and will be virtually ignored or downplayed by the corporate media as "lone wolf acts". Those who do investigate will find that some elected government officials are involved, but they will be shouted down as "conspiracy theorists" or "engaging in character assassination".
This is not the first (the Tiller assassin was a right wing terrorist, downplayed by the media as a "lone crank"). It won't be the last, unfortunately. Not until we as a nation get a spine and start indicting people who advocate "reload"ing, "locked and loaded" and "dead liberals" under sedition laws.

If Palin, O'Reilly, Limbaugh, Bachmann and their ilk were Muslim, they would be in Gitmo right now. But they're not, they're "Christian", and they wave the US flag and Christian Cross. So they get a pass from the corporate media, our law enforcement, and our society. That's Christian privilege. So is the fact that a gunman following their exhortations is described as a "lone nut", but if a Muslim (or anything else) advocated the same crap, and someone followed through, the whole race or religion would be tarred with the same brush (like what bigots say about the mythical "new black panthers".)

Welcome to fascism, people. It's here. I'm just waiting for our Kristallnacht. This isn't even it, BTW, but it's getting there.
ravan: by Ravan (Default)
( Jan. 4th, 2011 11:33 am)
I apparently skipped 2010 - and most of my 2009 predictions ran over into 2010 - like we lost a year!

So here are my predictions for 2011. They aren't pretty.
Read more... )
ravan: by Ravan (Default)
( Jul. 20th, 2010 03:46 pm)
Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 most of my 401k funds made a little money. True to form, Q2 the economy improved.

My 401k's are leading indicators, by about 4 - 6 months. No, I don't know why. You'd think it would be the opposite, but they predicted the dot com crash, and this crash, and dip before that clued me what to watch for.

Just went over my Q2 statements. All of my funds lost money again to the tune of 5% to 8%. This winter will suck - we are headed for a double dip, thanks to Congress and the corporate "deficit sissy" lobby.

My crystal ball says, you need to save your pennies and see if you can land work before October. Do not take on any new debt that you can avoid.

The second bloodletting as the corporates try to assure their hegemony will be nasty.
ravan: by Ravan (Default)
( Jan. 7th, 2009 01:24 pm)
You know you want them... Read more... )
ravan: by Ravan (Default)
( Jan. 18th, 2008 11:17 am)
OK, now some of my predictions for 2007 have not come true, but they are still forming. It is apparent that my timing and scale on things is a bit off. Still, not too bad.

That said, here's my take on 2008:
* Economy - "Recession" is in the news, and Bush and Congress are under pressure to "stimulate" the economy. They will try, but like the old time doctors "stimulating" women diagnosed with hysteria, it will ease the problem for a little while, but not fix the fundamental issue. Instead, the foundations to our economy will continue to erode, with a structure that rewards foolishness and waste, so that when the crash ends up like an unstoppable freight train, there won't be a fix - we'll have to just sit and weather the storm. Take the lull time to pay off debts and build savings.
* Petroleum - we've hit $100 a barrel, and backed off. Expect to bounce above it more, regardless of political pressure on OPEC. Reduce trips, but don't go into hock to buy a new car.
* Earthquakes - last year's "big" quake in the bay area was on a different fault than I expected. It seems to have relieved enough pressure that 2008 won't bring any 7.0 shakers. All bets are off for 2009/2010.
* Global Warming - More properly, this would be called "Climate Destablization". This year will be another one with violent weather. No Katrina level stuff, but not a lot short of it, and more often in more areas and more ways. Southern states, including southrn California, will bear the brunt in the US, with the general midwest taking the next biggest hit. Career opportunities in EMS - fire/rescue are going to increase.
* Housing - the bloodletting has begun. Any fed bailout will make it worse in the long run, but they don't know that. Expect housing bandaids and lender bailouts (out of our pockets, of course), mostly to please Wall Street and stupid banks, not home buyers.
* Health Care - "mandatory insurance purchase" laws will come up. Unlike car insurance, you can't chose not to live like you can chose not to drive or own a car. This will get ugly, and the insurance companies will get richer, and health care will still be unavailable for more and more people - even those with "insurance". After all, what good is a PPO with no providers in the network? More bodies will wash up on the shore of our failed system.
* Politics - gag. The scary candidates will be front runners. If the Dems play too much divisive politics in the primaary, the next president will be either a dominionist whack job, or a racist whack job. Beware of any candidate who appeals to the "bread abd Circuses" mentality of the mob.
* Pandemics - not bird flu, mad cow, or any big name. However, look for sizable MRSA, antibiotic resistant pneumonia and other deadly mutations of more common infections to kill large numbers, but be quieted by the press and medical establishment for fear of startinga panic. Coupled with the health care mess, and the housing/homeless mess, this will cut a swath through the poorest classes, quietly. The politicians won't do anything - "those people" aren't anyone's "base".
* Iraq - no change, still a mess, all year. No ome has the balls to say "enough".
* Impeachment - No one has the balls to prosecute members of the Bush administration for their treason against the Constitution and the rule of law. The next president will inherit the imperial presidency.
* Religion - ugly. Fanaticism will clash with fanaticism, and the reasonable, caring people will be drowned out in the din. Look for more violence againzst minority religions, again.
* Terrorism - when is terrorism not terrorism? When it comes from the right and Republicans are in power. People holding signs in pickets will be put on the "no-fly" list, but white power racists, dangerous anti-gay fanatics and violent dominionists will fly around unmolested to big dollar speaking engagements. More harm will be done by the right wing nuts than al Queda.
* Tech - "buried" tech will be "found", for profit, of course. But once the cat is out of the bag, expect a lot of churn at the small entrepreneur level. Big biz will try to quash it, with government help, but eventually the dinosaurs can't escape the tar pits.
* Digital Rights - slowly, the likes of RIAA and the MPAA will be forced to admit reality - the customer makes the rules, regardless of how many laws they pay for otherwise. The thaw has already started, and will pick up steam as they try to win back customers who have flipped them the bird in droves. Expect to see some near bankruptcies in the process, as digital prodution and distribution becomes a bone of contention.
* Russia - political yoyo, and dangerous due to instability and unpredictability.
* Pakistan - internal turmoil. Do not travel here, do not site companies here. Whoever the Bushies back will lose.
* Iran - simmering powder keg. If we keep our fingers out, this will become a moderate, westernized (european style) country. If we meddle, it will be a fanatical, repressed breeding ground for terror and human rights abuses.
* Global Economy - the US in recession will make other economies unstable. Combine this with climate destabilization and high petroleum costs, and the body count will climb. The rich will not care. Lots of sad stories, lots of hand wringing, no true changes to fix things.
* Middle East peace - Bush will fail.

In general, 2008 will be more of the same, plus worse weather. No great upheavals, just more "bad news fatigue".

* Pay down debt, reduce spending. If it's being advertised heavily, don't buy it - the ads tend to point to stuff you don't need.
* Go green and local, spend your hard earned cash in your community.
* Buy what you need first, not what you merely want. Remember, there are levels of need and want.
* Develop "at home" skills and hobbies. Give homemade gifts this year, if you can.
* Increase your savings.
* Take charge of your own health. The insurance companies will not advocate for *you*, only their profits. They make money killing you.
* Energy saving technologies are a good buy. The bills you reduce are your own.
* Offer a helping hand within your own community. Large religious based charities are tending toward corruption, scandal and ulterior motives.
* Vote your conscience, beware the wolf in sheep's clothing. But vote!
So, whacko Pat Robertson is now channeling predictions from "God" for 2007. I bet he thinks he's a bona-fide prophet now.

Fine. I'll play along. Here's mine, from my "sources":
  • Terror: Any terror attacks on US soil will be performed by domestic terrorists from either white supremacist or religious right (theocrat Dominionist) movements. They will be covered up in the mainstream press by the administration, who caters to them, but the brutal deaths of several thousand people (albeit all brown, gay, Jewish, or liberal) will come out. The targets will be in "godless liberal" areas.
  • Quakes: There have been several "small" but noticeable quakes on the Hayward? fault near Berkeley. This will continue, culminating in a 7.0 around August. The fundies will call it "gods retribution on the godless liberal bastion of Berkeley". Few people will die, but lots of buildings will be shaken, stirred, and condemned. Other places in the world will not fare as well.
  • Iraq: The war in Iraq will continue to escalate, with Iraqi factions shooting and blowing up each other and our troops. No one will have the political balls to pull us out and tell them to go to hell in their own hand-basket. Eventually, three states will emerge from the chaos, and probably merge with their neighboring compatriots. Iraq, as a nation, will be no more.
  • Presidential race: In the already crowded field of presidential candidates, no one currently is a solid front-runner. This will change, in both parties, but who it is will actually surprise a lot of pundits and "experts". A person from a third party will switch to one of the big two, and bring his/her agenda and fans with them.
  • Housing: The housing market bust will deepen and spread, leading to much crying among yuppies, but a lot of relief for the rest of us who are priced out of the market. The feds will try to shore it up, but fail miserably, making the true bottom even deeper than it would have been otherwise.
  • NewTech: No new breakthroughs on the biomedical front, but a much ignored new fuel/power technology will start gaining stealth traction "under the radar", and go mainstream to a chorus of "duh" around November. The Bush administration and Congress will take "credit" for it, which will be bullshit, of course.
  • Economy: Besides the bungling with the housing crash, the economy will act like a yoyo on crack. Buying and selling stocks in any short term will be like playing russian roulette.
  • Petrochemicals: Gas will briefly hit $4 a gallon, and then the corporate Republican stooges will get caught with their hands in the cookie jar (and the consumers pockets). Trials will be scheduled for next year. In the meantime, about 100 people will die because of greedy bastards gaming the fuels market. They will never be acknowledged by the mainstream media
  • Securitat: The "roundup" and incarceration of suspected "illegals" and "terrorists" will continue, to increasing, but ignored, outrage from liberal human rights advocates. The profits from this will continue to roll into the prison industry's pockets, and thence to lobbyists. It will only get blown wide open when a "sweep" picks up a few influential people's kids "slumming" - sometime in 2008.
  • Religion: Non-Christian religions will continue to make strides in our society, including using the rabid Christians own "war for public religion" against them. The screaming from the theocratic Christians will get more shrill, as they are hoist on their own petards. They will also get more militant and violent. They will also find out that not all non-Christians are pacifists. Look for religious based skirmishes this summer.
  • Health care: much sound and fury, but not much will change. The situation will continue to deteriorate, with the gap between the insured and the uninsured getting wider. People will start dying more noticeably, many more people will "know somebody" who died because of lack of insurance or inadequate insurance. A low level anger will grow, albeit slowly.
  • Global warming: Like a thief in the night, little consequences will pile up, but nothing dramatic this year. The general shrugging will commence, but some people will get badly screwed by it, and will be ignored - for now. The snowball continues to roll.
  • North Korea: House of cards. The wind that blows it down will come from an unexpected place. Afterward, it will still be a danger to its neighbors, and the world, but only due to chaos.
  • Bird flu: Not this year. Yes, there will be a couple micro-pandemics, but not from avian flu. Something more familiar and ordinary will mutate and be a surprise killer. These will be hushed up by the government and the lapdog press to avoid "panic", and if allowed to be buried may turn into something bigger, not contained and thus more deadly.
  • Rights: Not a great improvement. The slide will be slowed, but not stopped. There is still a lot of kick to the legislating morality crowd. Denying equality or any rights to those who are "different" - gay, poly, or liberal - by tyranny of the simple majority will still be popular.
  • Supreme Court: The new supreme court will demur on a lot of things as it sorts itself out after the first politically motivated flush. The ideologues and the pragmatists will have some interesting arguments, and the Bush babies will be burning a lot of midnight oil reading and thinking about precedent and principles. The shifts and spectrum of rulings will surprise a lot of people, especially the 'conservatives' that thought they had tame lap dogs. One of the worst social conservative judges, not the oldest, will keel over suddenly, and the Democrat controlled congress will only pass a moderate.

More as they pop up... ;-)


ravan: by Ravan (Default)


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