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Case ([personal profile] case) wrote in [community profile] fandomsecrets2025-07-13 02:10 pm

[ SECRET POST #6764 ]


⌈ Secret Post #6764 ⌋

Warning: Some secrets are NOT worksafe and may contain SPOILERS.


01.


More! )


Notes:

Secrets Left to Post: 02 pages, 37 secrets from Secret Submission Post #968.
Secrets Not Posted: [ 0 - broken links ], [ 0 - not!secrets ], [ 0 - not!fandom ], [ 0 - too big ], [ 0 - repeat ].
Current Secret Submissions Post: here.
Suggestions, comments, and concerns should go here.
scrubjayspeaks: hand holding pen over notebook (done this week)
scrubjayspeaks ([personal profile] scrubjayspeaks) wrote2025-07-13 10:07 am
Entry tags:

Done This Week

I SAW A BLUE JAY AT HOME!

Sorry, needed to get the most important news out first. I have been deeply jealous of work, where there are a bunch of blue jays* swinging by on a regular basis to harass people on the patio. In eleven years at my home, I have never seen a blue jay here. But yesterday, while out cleaning the corrals, I saw one flitting about. Looked fluffy and vaguely juvenile. I hope it sticks around. I may be one of the few people who is actually happy at the prospect of jays coming around to pester.

*For those not in California, I am referring to the California scrub jay, Aphelocoma californica, not the variety seen in the eastern portions of the continent, though both are colloquially referred to as blue jays. Still a corvid, still a beautiful blue bastard.

Anyway! Work was boring; I have resorted to reading library books on my phone at my desk. Complained to my boss that all the things I’m allegedly meant to be doing are either swept up by other people or locked behind the endless bureaucracy of waiting on approvals or support from people who don’t appear to ever do anything at all. I don’t actually like being this bored, with or without library books on my phone. I did get to do some wall patching and painting, though, so that was a relief.

Lewisia: 2 new pieces written, so now I’m a full week ahead ヽ(✿゚▽゚)ノ

Day job: 42.5 hours--a normal week???

Cooking: pineapple swirl milk bread (no recipe beyond the base milk bread from KAF, completely winging the alterations and additions, turned out tasty, would make as swirl rolls a la cinnamon rolls next time)

Gardening: more work on the club’s barcode database, garden club post, had a tree branch fall nearly on my car so had to drag that off for eventual dismantling

Watching: Murderbot season finale--premium quality entertainment 🔪🤖🖤

Listening: The Crux by Djo (very good, whatever this is called--shoegaze?--it is exceedingly pleasing for me, still hasn’t topped DECIDE but give it time to grow on me)

Clock Mouse: 1160 words
word_never_said: (long live the queen //;; my lady jane)
word_never_said ([personal profile] word_never_said) wrote in [community profile] iconic2025-07-13 12:37 pm

Multifandom icons

45 total (The Pitt, The Wheel of Time, The Gilded Age)



more here @ [community profile] stillpermanentt
word_never_said: (Default)
word_never_said ([personal profile] word_never_said) wrote in [community profile] fandom_icons2025-07-13 12:35 pm

Multifandom icons!

45 total (The Pitt, The Wheel of Time, The Gilded Age)



more here @ [community profile] stillpermanentt
word_never_said: (not a great feeling //;; spider ham)
word_never_said ([personal profile] word_never_said) wrote in [community profile] icons2025-07-13 12:30 pm

Multifandom icons

45 total (The Pitt, The Wheel of Time, The Gilded Age)



more here @ [community profile] stillpermanentt
susandennis: (Default)
Susan Dennis ([personal profile] susandennis) wrote2025-07-13 07:17 am

Sunday

I started a new book last night. An random shot from the library. I had read other stuff by the author years ago but don't remember a thing. This book, however - at least the first 40 minutes - is captivating because of the narrator. I mean she just got right into my brain like she was sitting next to me telling me about the most amazing thing that had ever happened to her. It was wild. Even if the rest of the book sucks, I'm so delighted for that first part. I hated to go to sleep. How It Happened by Michael Koryta. Read by Christine Lakin.

Oh the other big news from yesterday was brought to you by Ingrid. My neighbor who is just whacked and not in a good way. As we began elbow coffee, Bonny reminded Ingrid that she still needed the $15 for the 3rd floor gathering next week. It was due 2 weeks ago and everyone has paid but her. She then proceeded to have a melt down/tantrum that would have honestly made a 3 year old proud. She ended up literally pounding on the table. It was pretty funny. Then everyone pretended it had not happened for about 30 minutes and this pissed her off so when we started passing around the snacks, she got up and marched through the gathering and left, muttering very loudly and venomously "I've lost my appetite due to Bonny."

I was delighted because the last time she had a tablet pounded tantrum it was due to me. (I had not checked in on her when an alarm went off.)

She is such a piece of work.

I pulled out another sweater from my stash and unraveled the sleeves for more hair. It was a sweater for about a 3 year old. Here is one sleeve and the hair already gotten from the other one. I'm guessing the one sleeve is hair for probably 7 or 8 dolls. And I still have the whole rest of the sweater. And one other one (pink). That should be enough to get me to the end of August when they start putting out the sweaters again in the charity shops.

PXL_20250712_212820063

And Dick and I worked on the puzzle. We've gotten a lot done but 1. Not all of it is correct. It's one of those where the same piece will feel like it fits and look like it fits but turns out to belong elsewhere. and 2. We still have grass and sky to do and I'm not sure how in the heck those will get done give #1.

PXL_20250712_183946137

My Costco membership expired in February. Two of the items I normally buy when they go on sale are now on sale (coffee and AREDs2) but, actually, I don't really need either one right now or soon ish so I was going to go reup this week and buy them but I think I'll let it slide some more. If I were going to go this week, it would be this morning. Sunday's first thing is THE only time according to me, but, not today, Costco.

Today will be some knitting. Some baseball. Some TV. Some puzzling. And whatever else happens.

20250713_071042-COLLAGE
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science ([syndicated profile] andrewgelmansstatist_feed) wrote2025-07-13 01:54 pm

I don’t understand this paper claiming election fraud in 2024 in Pennsylvania.

Posted by Andrew

Pointing to this new article by Walter Mebane, eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania, Stefan Gramatovici writes:

I think you might find it interesting. I think their claims are wrong, but this is not my area of expertise, and I am having difficulty fully following the paper due to the lack of details in the models they are fitting.

They specify some precinct level model for turnout and vote share, fit the data and find some sort of pattern in the residuals. Then they add some variables for fraud, and that “The statewide total across precincts of eforensics-fraudulent votes, 225440.2 [207757.1, 252978.1], exceeds the statewide gap of 120266 votes between Trump and Harris.” So now we even have rather tight “fraud vote” CIs.

The key issue I have with the paper is that these “fraudulent” votes not explained by the original precinct model are probably due to other factors. On page 8, the author says: ” there is a signal that likely the incremental stolen votes at least in part come from malevolent distortions in Philadelphia and Huntingdon, but generally–including in these two counties–the incremental stolen votes are unknown admixtures of malevolent distortions and electors’ strategic behaviors.”. I am not a political scientist, but I could name several likely “strategic behaviors” around the 2024 election, especially in the Philadelphia area. I see no method suggested by the author to distinguish between patterns due to model misspecification and patterns due to fraud.

I took a look at the linked paper and I can’t understand what’s going on here at all. I also looked at the earlier paper by Mebane et al. describing their “eforensics” method, and I still can’t figure out what they’re trying to do. Mebane is a respected quantitative political scientist, which can be taken as evidence that we should try to read these papers more seriously; conversely, without his name attached to them I don’t think we’d be reading them at all.

I wasn’t sure what to write about this paper, but then yesterday someone else emailed me about it, and I was chatting with someone in an entirely different context and he said he’d been hearing something about election fraud in Pennsylvania . . . so I thought it best for me to post my reaction here.

lsanderson: (Default)
lsanderson ([personal profile] lsanderson) wrote2025-07-13 08:56 am

2025.07.13

The Texas way: why the most disaster-prone US state is so allergic to preparing for disasters
It faces hurricanes, heat, drought, rising seas and – as last week showed – deadly floods. But despite the clear need for preventive action, that is not the political mood
Ed Pilkington US chief reporter
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/13/texas-disaster-weather-preparations-us

Some gut microbes can absorb and help expel ‘forever chemicals’ from the body, research shows
Previously, the only way to reduce levels of Pfas was by bloodletting or a drug with unpleasant side effects
Tom Perkins
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/13/pfas-gut-microbes-forever-chemicals

Quality of scientific papers questioned as academics ‘overwhelmed’ by the millions published
Mainstream mockery of AI-generated rat with giant penis in one paper brings problem to public attention
Ian Sample Science editor
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jul/13/quality-of-scientific-papers-questioned-as-academics-overwhelmed-by-the-millions-published Read more... )
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science ([syndicated profile] andrewgelmansstatist_feed) wrote2025-07-13 01:06 pm

The ERROR project: “We pay experts to examine important and influential scientific publications for

Posted by Andrew

Malte Elson writes:

I read your article with Andy King [non-paywalled version is here] in the Chronicle of Higher education with great interest. I totally agree that pre-publication peer review as a “quality management device” is not enough, and that particularly highly cited or otherwise influential scientific publications should undergo re-review as errors often proliferate in the literature for years before (and, regrettably, even after) critical errors or flaws are discovered.

I’m not sure if you’re aware of this, but we run a project that does exactly that out of my lab at the University of Bern in Switzerland: https://error.reviews/

The very short description of ERROR is that we pay experts to examine important and influential scientific publications for errors in order to strengthen the culture of error checking, error acceptance, and error correction in our field. As in other bug bounty programs, the payout scales with the magnitude of errors found. Less important errors pay a smaller fee, whereas more important errors that affect core conclusions yield a larger payout.

We expect most published research to contain at least some errors, and that we believe that the presence of minor errors does not negate an article’s scientific contribution. Indeed, our reward system pays bonuses to both authors and reviewers even when minor errors are found. We believe that our field would be strengthened by a culture of checking, accepting, and communicating errors.

The project’s overarching goals are to understand (a) what kinds of errors actually occur, (b) the rate at which they occur, and (c) what methods allow us to detect errors effectively and efficiently. Finally, this project will be used to determine how expensive a dedicated error detection system is compared to the follow-up costs of undetected errors.

For pragmatic reasons (because data and code often are not readily available) and overall tolerability of the project by the research community, ERROR currently requires active consent by the authors, meaning that a lot of highly cited papers will not be looked at. Again, I don’t think it’s possible to do so in fields where sharing and documentation of research materials is overall poor.

So far, we published 4 full review cycles, with one of the papers having a major error that affects a core conclusion: https://error.reviews/reviews/hehman-et-al-2018/

We intend to publish ~100 in total over the course of 4 years.

This sounds great.

james_davis_nicoll: (Default)
james_davis_nicoll ([personal profile] james_davis_nicoll) wrote2025-07-13 08:50 am
oursin: Brush the Wandering Hedgehog by the fire (Default)
oursin ([personal profile] oursin) wrote2025-07-13 12:50 pm

(no subject)

Happy birthday, [personal profile] kimsnarks!
alisx: A demure little moth person, with charcoal fuzz and teal accents. (Default)
Alis ([personal profile] alisx) wrote2025-07-13 09:31 pm
Entry tags:

Sunday @ 9:31 pm

A list of a characters combat jobs in FINAL FANTASY XIV, showing everything (except Blue Mage) at 95.

Eey. Second Duty maxed out, back to MSQ!

Also, ngl, was dreading that this would lead immediately into a Trial. Which it did . . . but it’s Trustable. So. Schwoit. #ffxiv

Leave a comment.+

badfalcon: (Default)
Cassie Morgan ([personal profile] badfalcon) wrote2025-07-11 07:41 pm
Entry tags:

[community profile] thefridayfive for 11h July

1. What was the most sick that you've ever been? It’s a toss-up between when I had pleurisy one Christmas (I was about seven or eight), swine flu, or covid.

2. What disease are you afraid of getting? Alzheimer’s - though I’m not sure if I’m more terrified of me getting it, or Li.

3. Are you a big baby when it comes to taking medicine/shots for your illnesses? Not at all. But I am both very forgetful and pretty susceptible to the “I feel better, I don’t need this anymore” trap - currently going through it with my asthma meds, actually.

4. Is going to the doctor really THAT bad? Yes. Especially with my joints - I’ve spent thirty years not being listened to.

5. Would you have the flu twice a month if you were paid $1,000 for having it? Absolutely not. I’ve only had the flu twice in my life, and both times it knocked me off my feet for 8–10 days. I’ll happily never have it again. There’s a reason I get my flu jab every year.
offcntr: (mktbear)
offcntr ([personal profile] offcntr) wrote2025-07-12 10:34 pm

Fair weather

I never know what to expect on Oregon Country Fair weekend. On the one hand, a lot of vendors, both art and food, are out in Veneta. So theoretically, that's fewer folks to split the sales pie. On the other hand, the customers may also be out there as well--or they may be all here at Market because the crowds (and the hippies) are all gone. It's a toss-up. I've had really good days and really terrible ones. The only way to find out which is to show up.

So this sunny sunflowery Saturday found me, slightly bleary and only a little late, setting up my booth on the Park Blocks. Lots of empty spaces, including the one right beside my. Lots of new vendors, too. You're guaranteed a space this weekend.

My first sale comes at 9 am, as I'm preparing to leave for Farmer's Market; second one is a quarter to 10 after I get back. She asks whether it's okay to sell before official opening--it isn't at Farmer's Market. I explain that they've had issues with people coming earlier and earlier to get first dibs on fresh produce, to the point that it was interfering with vendors' ability to get set up. So they have a hard start time, and you can get written up for selling early. Here on our side of the street, things are more relaxed. As long as you're ready to sell, you can be open whenever.

At least one of my customers says she comes down specifically to avoid the usual crowds. Several recognize my work from Tsunami Bookstore. One lady spots the animal banks, tells her companions that she bought them for her grandkids nearly 30 years ago. Then proceeds to buy a brontosaur and stegosaur for her great grandkids.

My friend Carleen comes in with a sad story--one of the plates from their anniversary set cracked. Can't figure out why, unless it's because the bottom is a little too thick. I happen to have one in exactly that size and pattern in the restock box, so replace it free of charge. (I stand behind my work.) And then the friend that came down to Market with her decides to buy her husband a cereal bowl, and maybe one for herself, and by the time she's finished, she has a set of four plus a salmon painted mug.

Had a nice talk on my glazing process with a young woman who goes on to tell me she's the studio tech for the community college in Coos Bay. I give her my card and call her attention to all the resources on this blog. (If you're reading this, Hi! I didn't get your name...)

A woman introduces herself as the daughter of Mildred Wasserman, a potter I knew from my Craft Center days. She was a retired nurse from Alabama who eventually set up a studio in her basement, even sold at Market for a year or two with Kathy Lee, who went on to share her booth with me when Mildred opted out. They're both passed away now; it was lovely to call them to mind. Daughter is there with her son, who says he remembers me too--he used to come in to the Center with grandma when he was six or seven, to play in the clay.

Talked with people from all over the country: Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee, New Jersey, two different folks from Virginia. Some of them are trusting to their carry-on bags to get their pottery home, others take a card with my website, and the assurance that I'd be happy to ship their pots to them.

I turn the second page of my sale book just before 3 pm, but don't make any sales on page 3. Doesn't matter, we're still over $900 for the day. And I didn't have to drive to Veneta.



offcntr: (huggy)
offcntr ([personal profile] offcntr) wrote2025-07-12 09:39 pm

Wakey wakey

I have my alarm set for 6 am on Saturdays, to make sure I leave for Market by 7:00. I rarely need it, though; I'll wake up some time around 5:30 desperate to pee, and then there's no point in going back to bed, is there?

This morning I was up even earlier, about 5:20, and once nature was satisfied, I went out to the studio to cover some bowls, so I could trim them tonight. Only a dozen toddlers, and eight catfood dishes that just needed smoothing and stamping. They were all at the perfect consistency, and I was up early, so I figured, Why not trim them now and get it over with? Then I could fire off the bisque kiln that's been loaded since Thursday and come home to no studio responsibilities.

So here's Frank, barefoot, shirtless, patchwork surfer-baggy-style sleeping shorts, trimming bowls in the studio. No glasses, terribly near-sighted, reminds me of all those blindfold throwing challenges on ceramics social media. I can barely make out the clock hands to see what time it's getting, but that's fine, I'm just about finished at five 'til six, go turn off the alarm before it wakes Denise. Come back, still barefoot, and go outside to squint at the electric meter before starting the kiln.

And feel something rubbing against my ankles.

Yep, Raj the tuxedo kitty is up too, and wants his breakfast. Follows me into the studio while I hunt for scissors to open the new bag of cat food, figure-eights around my ankles as I cautiously barefoot it out to his bowl in the carport, insisting on his morning pets before tucking in.

Come back to the bedroom to find these two blissed out in my side of the bed.

I'm so jealous.

offcntr: (cookie)
offcntr ([personal profile] offcntr) wrote2025-07-12 10:22 pm
Entry tags:

Delish

First apple crisp of the season!

Looks like we're going to get a bunch of Gravensteins this year, Pippins likewise. Didn't have the time or oomph to build a pie crust, so I default to my Grandma's super-simple Apple Crisp recipe.

Apple Crisp

5-6 medium baking apples--Gravensteins, Granny Smith, etc.--cored and sliced.

1 cup flour
3/4 cup sugar
1 tsp baking powder
3/4 tsp salt
1 large egg, unbeaten
1 T water
1/3 cup melted butter
Dusting of cinnamon

Lay apples evenly in a greased baking dish--9x13" is fine, I have this 12" diameter baker I made specifically for crisps.

Whisk together dry ingredients, then add egg and water. Mix with fork until crumbly. Mixture doesn't have to be evenly mixed: big lumps, powdery bits, all okay. Spread over top of the apples, drizzle with butter, dust with cinnamon. You'll note that the apples aren't sugared in this recipe. If you're dealing with early, very green apples, as I was, you might want to add 1/4 cup sugar to the apples before applying the topping.

Bake 30-40 minutes at 350° F.



PostSecret ([syndicated profile] post_secret_feed) wrote2025-07-13 12:08 am

Sunday Secrets

Posted by Frank

Sunday Secrets began 20 years ago. This week I did not receive enough postcards to share back. Free your secrets today.

The post Sunday Secrets appeared first on PostSecret.

Alpennia Blog ([syndicated profile] alpennia_feed) wrote2025-07-13 02:53 am

New Research in Trans Studies

Posted by Heather Rose Jones

Saturday, July 12, 2025 - 19:00

Today's article is a survey of recent research in trans (and to a lesser extent, intersex) research on the middle ages.

Major category: 
Full citation: 

Wingard, Tess, 2024. “The Trans Middle Ages: Incorporating Transgender and Intersex Studies into the History of Medieval Sexuality”, The English Historical Review, cead214, https://doi.org/10.1093/ehr/cead214

This article is a survey of recent work in trans and intersex historical studies covering the medieval period. Wingard notes that these topics have only been seriously included in book-length studies since 2020, following something of a hiatus in queer medieval history publications in general since the early 2000s. This particular survey focuses on work that studies “lived experience” via documentary sources and non-fiction texts, rather than a broader scope that includes literary and artistic materials.

Queer medieval history has revolved around three topics: identity, community, and repression. The first involves identifying individuals where there is probable evidence for sexual, romantic and intimate acts classifiable as queer, though the evidence rarely addresses interiority. Wingard notes the debt owed to approaches developed for women’s history to identify methods and approaches for marginalized subjects.

The field involves several significant theoretical disagreements of approach and method. One position argues against the concept of “persistent sexual identity” being meaningful in the medieval period, much less a clear binary classification of homosexual and heterosexual. In this context, “heteronormativity” is not a useful interpretive framework. Another position (which the author holds) is that while medieval concepts do focus more on acts than identities, there is a clear privileging of male-female relations, which are uniquely classified as “natural.” The result is difficult to distinguish from heteronormativity.

Studies into medieval community again hit a clear divide between those who reject Boswell’s image of an “international gay subculture” and those who more narrowly identify specific contexts for networks and normalized practices among queer men. [Note: And with regard to “communities” the discussion is entirely focused on men.]

The third theme relates to repression and persecution and the forces and logics that drive fluctuations in official attention to queer practices.

Having laid out the map of the field of queer history in general, Wingard discusses a number of very recent publications that explore new ground specifically with regard to trans and intersex studies. [Note: I’m not going to list individual titles, but many of them are on my shelves and will be blogged at a later date.] This field is moving on from anecdotal studies of specific individuals, to studies that address larger theoretical questions, such as philosophical and medical understandings of transness and intersex. These questions are relevant to the study of sex and gender in general because they challenge the nature and definition of sex and gender categories.

Trans history is based on several key principles: that gender is socially constructed, that biological sex itself is—to some extent—socially constructed (i.e., that societies have had different focuses and frameworks for determining how to classify someone as biologically male or biologically female), and that “individuals whose gender identity does not line up with their assigned gender at birth have always existed in all human cultures,” and have used various strategies to negotiate that mismatch. Wingard notes that using a trans history approach to these questions is productive regardless of whether the subjects of study can be considered “transgender” either by modern definitions or by some medieval analog. The parallel to Judith Bennett’s “lesbian-like” approach is noted. Several specific historic individuals are discussed to illustrate these points.

Intersex history also speaks to the social construction of sex and gender, as well as the agency that intersex individuals had to manage their own classification, within certain limits.

Place: